Qualitative assessment of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on migration, access to healthcare, and social wellbeing among Venezuelan migrants and refugees in Colombia.

Background: Colombia hosts a large number of Venezuelan migrants and refugees who are uniquely vulnerable and have been markedly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is necessary to understand their experiences to inform future policy decisions both in Colombia and during disease outbreaks in other humanitarian contexts in the future. As part of a larger study focused on HIV among Venezuelans residing in Colombia, qualitative interviews were conducted to understand this population's experiences and access to healthcare. Methods: Interviews were conducted with Venezuelan migrants and refugees as well as stakeholders such as care providers, humanitarian workers, and government officials. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded using thematic content analysis. Select quotes were translated and edited for length and/or clarity. Results: Venezuelan migrants and refugees reported high levels of housing instability, job instability, increased barriers to accessing healthcare, and complications in engaging in the HIV care continuum, among other impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Stakeholders reported complications in provision of care and obtaining medicines, difficulty maintaining contact with patients, increased discrimination and xenophobia targeting Venezuelan migrants and refugees, increased housing instability among Venezuelan migrants and refugees, and other impacts as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the unique impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic among Venezuelans residing in Colombia by both compounding extant vulnerabilities and introducing new challenges, such as high rates of eviction. Colombia has enacted increasingly inclusive migration policies for Venezuelan refugees and migrants within the country; findings from this study underscore the necessity for such policies both in and outside of the Colombian context.

Real-world Evidence of COVID-19 Vaccines Effectiveness in Solid-organ Transplant Recipient Population in Colombia: A Study Nested in the Esperanza Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Solid-organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) have a higher risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) complications and death and a less powerful and lasting response to vaccines and to natural infection. In Colombia, this population was prioritized in the National Vaccination Plan against COVID-19 and received vaccines from different platforms. The aim of this study was to estimate the effectiveness of the complete vaccination schedule and of the vaccine booster for COVID-19 administered to SOTRs in Colombia. METHODS: A nested-cohort was assembled within the population-based ESPERANZA cohort and included the subset of 16 y and older SOTRs (n = 6963); the follow-up period spanned March 11, 2021, to May 11, 2022. The vaccine effectiveness was estimated with Cox proportional-hazards models so that the overall effectiveness of the complete vaccination schedule, the vaccine booster, each used vaccine, and the homologous and heterologous schedules were estimated, adjusting by the main confounders. RESULTS: The overall effectiveness of being fully vaccinated was 73.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 68.9%-77.0%) to prevent COVID-19 infection, 83.7% (95% CI, 78.7%-87.5%) to prevent hospitalization, and 92.1% (95% CI, 88.8%-94.4%) to prevent death due to COVID-19. Similarly, the effectiveness of the vaccine booster was 76.7% (95% CI, 70.6%-81.5%), 86.9% (95% CI, 79.4%-91.6%), and 94.5% (95% CI, 89.8%-97.1%) to prevent confirmed COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and death due to COVID-19, respectively. In both cases, there were no statistically significant differences across age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this work show a high protection of vaccination against infection, hospitalization, and death due to COVID-19 in SOTRs, which increases with the vaccine booster.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in older adults in Colombia: a retrospective, population-based study of the ESPERANZA cohort.

Background: Although clinical trials showed that vaccines have high efficacy and safety, differences in study designs and populations do not allow for comparison between vaccines and age groups. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 in real-world conditions in adults aged 60 years and older in Colombia. Methods: In this retrospective, population-based, matched cohort study, we evaluated the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death in people aged 60 years and older. The full cohort consisted of every person who was eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccine in Colombia (the ESPERANZA cohort). The exposed cohort consisted of older adults who were fully vaccinated with Ad26.COV2-S, BNT162b2, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, or CoronaVac, and who did not have a history of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. The unexposed cohort were people aged 60 years and older who had not received any dose of a COVID-19 vaccine during the study period. Participant follow-up was done between March 11, 2021, and Oct 26, 2021. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated as 1- hazard ratio from cause-specific proportional hazards models in the presence of competing risks. We estimated the overall effectiveness of being fully vaccinated, as well as effectiveness for each vaccine, adjusting by main potential confounders. The effectiveness of each vaccine was also assessed by age groups (ages 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and ≥80 years). Findings: 2 828 294 participants were assessed between March 11 and Oct 26, 2021. For all ages, the overall effectiveness across all assessed COVID-19 vaccines at preventing hospitalisation without subsequent death was 61·6% (95% CI 58·0-65·0, p<0·0001), 79·8% (78·5-81·1, p<0·0001) for preventing death after hospitalisation with COVID-19, and 72·8% (70·1-75·3, p<0·0001) for preventing death without previous COVID-19 hospitalisation. The effectiveness of all vaccines analysed at preventing death after hospitalisation for COVID-19 was 22·6% lower in adults who were aged 80 and older (68·4% [65·7-70·9], p<0·0001) compared with adults aged between 60 and 69 years (91·0% [89·0-92·6], p<0·0001). Interpretation: All vaccines analysed in this study were effective at preventing hospitalisation and death from COVID-19 in fully vaccinated older adults, which is a promising result for the national vaccination programme against COVID-19 in Colombia and in countries where these biologics have been applied. Efforts should be improved to increase coverage among older adults. In addition, given that we observed that the effectiveness of vaccines declined with increasing age, a booster dose is also justified, which should be prioritised for older adults. Funding: Colombian Ministry of Health and Social Protection.

Sobre las “reflexiones críticas” al Índice de resiliencia epidemiológica municipal

En junio de 2021, un grupo de distinguidos académicos colombianos sometieron a su revista algunas reflexiones1 sobre el Índice de Resiliencia Epidemiológica Municipal (IREM), el cual fue propuesto por el Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social de Colombia como una herramienta para la toma de decisiones en los territorios del país respecto a la reactivación económica que se plantea en el proceso de superación de la crisis social y económica relacionada con la pandemia por COVID-19. A continuación, deseamos aportar algunos elementos analíticos e interpretativos sobre dichas reflexiones con el ánimo de enriquecer la discusión. Alternate abstract: In June 2021, a group of renowned Colombian scholars submitted to your Journal1 an article with some reflections on the Municipal Epidemiological Resilience Index (IREM by its acronym in Spanish) proposed by the Colombian Ministry of Health and Social Protection as a tool for decision-making in the country’s territories to boost economic reactivation and overcome the social and economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We would like to take advantage of this space to provide some analytical and interpretative insights on these reflections with the aim of enriching the discussion.

Cost-Effectiveness of the COVID-19 Test, Trace and Isolate Program in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) programs have been recommended as a risk mitigation strategy. However, many governments have hesitated to implement them due to their costs. This study aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of implementing a national TTI program to reduce the number of severe and fatal cases of COVID-19 in Colombia. METHODS: We developed a Markov simulation model of COVID-19 infection combined with a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered structure. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of a comprehensive TTI strategy compared to no intervention over a one-year horizon, from both the health system and the societal perspective. Hospitalization and mortality rates were retrieved from Colombian surveillance data. We included program costs of TTI intervention, health services utilization, PCR diagnosis test, productivity loss, and government social program costs. We used the number of deaths and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as health outcomes. Sensitivity analyses were performed. FINDINGS: Compared with no intervention, the TTI strategy reduces COVID-19 mortality by 67%. In addition, the program saves an average of $1,045 and $850 per case when observed from the social and the health system perspective, respectively. These savings are equivalent to two times the current health expenditures in Colombia per year. INTERPRETATION: The TTI program is a highly cost-effective public health intervention to reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Colombia. TTI programs depend on their successful and speedy implementation. FUNDING: This study was supported by the Colombian Ministry of Health through award number PUJ-04519-20 received by EPQ AVO and SDS declined to receive any funding support for this study. The contents are the responsibility of all the individual authors.

Socioeconomic inequalities associated with mortality for COVID-19 in Colombia: a cohort nationwide study.

BACKGROUND: After 8 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, Latin American countries have some of the highest rates in COVID-19 mortality. Despite being one of the most unequal regions of the world, there is a scarce report of the effect of socioeconomic conditions on COVID-19 mortality in their countries. We aimed to identify the effect of some socioeconomic inequality-related factors on COVID-19 mortality in Colombia. METHODS: We conducted a survival analysis in a nation-wide retrospective cohort study of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Colombia from 2 March 2020 to 26 October 2020. We calculated the time to death or recovery for each confirmed case in the cohort. We used an extended multivariable time-dependent Cox regression model to estimate the HR by age groups, sex, ethnicity, type of health insurance, area of residence and socioeconomic strata. RESULTS: There were 1 033 218 confirmed cases and 30 565 deaths for COVID-19 in Colombia between 2 March and 26 October. The risk of dying for COVID-19 among confirmed cases was higher in males (HR 1.68 95% CI 1.64 to 1.72), in people older than 60 years (HR 296.58 95% CI 199.22 to 441.51), in indigenous people (HR 1.20 95% CI 1.08 to 1.33), in people with subsidised health insurance regime (HR 1.89 95% CI 1.83 to 1.96) and in people living in the very low socioeconomic strata (HR 1.44 95% CI 1.24 to 1.68). CONCLUSION: Our study provides evidence of socioeconomic inequalities in COVID-19 mortality in terms of age groups, sex, ethnicity, type of health insurance regimen and socioeconomic status.

Multimorbidity patterns among COVID-19 deaths: proposal for the construction of etiological models.

OBJECTIVES: To describe patterns of multimorbidity among fatal cases of COVID-19, and to propose a classification of patients based on age and multimorbidity patterns to begin the construction of etiological models. METHODS: Data of Colombian confirmed deaths of COVID-19 until June 11, 2020, were included in this analysis (n=1488 deaths). Relationships between COVID-19, combinations of health conditions and age were explored using locally weighted polynomial regressions. RESULTS: The most frequent health conditions were high blood pressure, respiratory disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and kidney disease. Dyads more frequents were high blood pressure with diabetes, cardiovascular disease or respiratory disease. Some multimorbidity patterns increase probability of death among older individuals, whereas other patterns are not age-related, or decrease the probability of death among older people. Not all multimorbidity increases with age, as is commonly thought. Obesity, alone or with other diseases, was associated with a higher risk of severity among young people, while the risk of the high blood pressure/diabetes dyad tends to have an inverted U distribution in relation with age. CONCLUSIONS: Classification of individuals according to multimorbidity in the medical management of COVID-19 patients is important to determine the possible etiological models and to define patient triage for hospitalization. Moreover, identification of non-infected individuals with high-risk ages and multimorbidity patterns serves to define possible interventions of selective confinement or special management.

OBJETIVOS: Describir los patrones de multimorbilidad entre los casos fatales de COVID-19, y proponer una clasificación de los pacientes basada en la edad y los patrones de multimorbilidad para iniciar la construcción de modelos etiológicos. MÉTODOS: Se incluyeron los datos de las muertes confirmadas por COVID-19 en Colombia hasta el 11 de junio de 2020 (n=1 488 muertes). Se exploraron las relaciones entre la COVID-19, las combinaciones de enfermedades y la edad utilizando regresiones polinómicas con ponderación local. RESULTADOS: Las enfermedades más frecuentes fueron la hipertensión arterial, las enfermedades respiratorias, la diabetes, las enfermedades cardiovasculares y las enfermedades renales. Las díadas más frecuentes fueron la hipertensión arterial combinada con diabetes, enfermedades cardiovasculares o enfermedades respiratorias. Algunos patrones de multimorbilidad aumentan la probabilidad de morir en las personas mayores, mientras que otros no están relacionados con la edad o disminuyen la probabilidad de morir en las personas mayores. A diferencia de lo que con frecuencia se considera, no toda la multimorbilidad aumenta con la edad. La obesidad, aislada o combinada con otras enfermedades, se asocia con un mayor riesgo de enfermedad grave en los jóvenes, mientras que el riesgo de la díada hipertensión arterial/diabetes tiende a tener una distribución en U invertida en relación con la edad. CONCLUSIONES: La clasificación de los individuos según la multimorbilidad en el manejo médico de los pacientes con COVID-19 es importante para determinar los posibles modelos etiológicos y definir el triaje de los pacientes para su hospitalización. Además, la identificación de los individuos no infectados con edades y patrones de multimorbilidad de alto riesgo sirve para definir posibles intervenciones de confinamiento selectivo o manejo especial.

Recommendations for the response against COVID-19 in migratory contexts under a closed border: The case of Colombia

Despite the positive response of Colombia's health system to the arrival of Venezuelan migrants, the new challenges that accompany the COVID-19 pandemic have triggered a closed-borders response that runs the risk of encouraging a negative view of migrants and increasing their health risks. This manuscript discusses the recommendations that could be proposed in the case of a country with limited resources such as Colombia to respond to the needs of the Venezuelan mixed migrant flows. Resumen A pesar de la respuesta positiva del sistema de salud de Colombia a la llegada de migrantes venezolanos, los nuevos desafíos que acompañan la pandemia de COVID-19 han desencadenado una respuesta de fronteras cerradas, con lo que se corre el riesgo de alentar una visión negativa de los migrantes e incrementar sus riesgos en salud. Este manuscrito discute las recomendaciones que podrían proponerse en el caso de un país con recursos limitados, como Colombia, para responder a las necesidades de una población vulnerable como la conformada por los flujos de migrantes mixtos venezolanos.

Recommendations for the response against COVID-19 in migratory contexts under a closed border: The case of Colombia

Despite the positive response of Colombia's health system to the arrival of Venezuelan migrants, the new challenges that accompany the COVID-19 pandemic have triggered a closed-borders response that runs the risk of encouraging a negative view of migrants and increasing their health risks. This manuscript discusses the recommendations that could be proposed in the case of a country with limited resources such as Colombia to respond to the needs of the Venezuelan mixed migrant flows. Resumen A pesar de la respuesta positiva del sistema de salud de Colombia a la llegada de migrantes venezolanos, los nuevos desafíos que acompañan la pandemia de COVID-19 han desencadenado una respuesta de fronteras cerradas, con lo que se corre el riesgo de alentar una visión negativa de los migrantes e incrementar sus riesgos en salud. Este manuscrito discute las recomendaciones que podrían proponerse en el caso de un país con recursos limitados, como Colombia, para responder a las necesidades de una población vulnerable como la conformada por los flujos de migrantes mixtos venezolanos.

Air pollution, sociodemographic and health conditions effects on COVID-19 mortality in Colombia: An ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to determine the association between chronic exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), sociodemographic aspects, and health conditions with COVID-19 mortality in Colombia. METHODS: We performed an ecological study using data at the municipality level. We used COVID-19 data obtained from government public reports up to and including July 17th, 2020. We defined PM2.5 long-term exposure as the 2014-2018 average of the estimated concentrations at municipalities obtained from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service Reanalysis (CAMSRA) model. We fitted a logit-negative binomial hurdle model for the mortality rate adjusting for sociodemographic and health conditions. RESULTS: Estimated mortality rate ratios (MRR) for long-term average PM2.5 were not statistically significant in either of the two components of the hurdle model (i.e., the likelihood of reporting at least one death or the count of fatal cases). We found that having 10% or more of the population over 65 years of age (MRR = 3.91 95%CI 2.24-6.81), the poverty index (MRR = 1.03 95%CI 1.01-1.05), and the prevalence of hypertension over 6% (MRR = 1.32 95%CI1.03-1.68) are the main factors associated with death rate at the municipality level. Having higher hospital beds capacity is inversely correlated to mortality. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of an association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and COVID-19 mortality rate at the municipality level in Colombia. Demographics, health system capacity, and social conditions did have evidence of an ecological effect on COVID-19 mortality. The use of model-based estimations of long-term PM2.5 exposure includes an undetermined level of uncertainty in the results, and therefore they should be interpreted as preliminary evidence.

Report From Bolsonaro's Brazil: The Consequences of Ignoring Science.

Currently, the fast spread of COVID-19 is the cause of a sanitary emergency in Brazil. This situation is largely due to President Bolsonaro's denial and the uncoordinated actions between the federal and local governments. In addition, the Brazilian government has reported that it would change its method of sharing information about the pandemic. On June 6, 2020, the presentation of accumulated cases and deaths was stopped, and the Supreme Court of Brazil determined that the federal government should continue to consolidate and disseminate the accumulated figures of cases and deaths. However, doubt about the transparency of the data remained. We used data reported by the government from Situation Reports 38-209 of the World Health Organization to assess the Benford's law fulfillment as an indicator of data quality. This rapid evaluation of data quality during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil suggests that the Brazilian public health surveillance system had an acceptable performance at the beginning of the epidemic. Since the end of June, the quality of cumulative death data began to decrease and remains in that condition as of August 2020. A similar situation has existed since August, with the data of accumulated new cases.